Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 3/31/25 MLB Picks
The Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Boston Red Sox on Monday, March 31, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:35 p.m. ET. Both teams aim to improve their early-season records in this American League East matchup.
Pitching Matchup:
Boston Red Sox: Sean Newcomb is projected to start for the Red Sox. In the 2024 season, Newcomb appeared in limited action, posting a 1-0 record with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP over 10 innings pitched. The Red Sox hope Newcomb can provide stability to their rotation as they seek to rebound from a slow start.
Baltimore Orioles: Cade Povich is slated to take the mound for the Orioles. The 24-year-old left-hander concluded his rookie season in 2024 with a 3-9 record, a 5.20 ERA, and a 1.43 WHIP over 79.2 innings. Povich faced the Red Sox twice last season, recording an 0-2 record with a 4.91 ERA across 11 innings, surrendering six runs on 11 hits with 11 strikeouts.
Team Performances:
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox enter this game with a 1-3 record. After securing a 5-2 victory over the Texas Rangers on Opening Day, they suffered three consecutive losses, scoring a total of six runs during that span. Offensively, Wilyer Abreu has been a standout, boasting a .700 batting average with two home runs and six RBIs.
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles hold a 2-2 record following their opening series against the Toronto Blue Jays. In their two victories, they showcased offensive prowess by combining for 21 runs, whereas in their two losses, they managed only three runs. Cedric Mullins has been a key contributor, recording a .313 batting average with two home runs and six RBIs.
Betting Odds:
Moneyline: Orioles -145, Red Sox +121
Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (+139), Red Sox +1.5 (-167)
Over/Under: 9.5 runs (Over -108, Under -112)
Prediction:
Analysts project a score of Orioles 6, Red Sox 2, with the total runs falling under 9.5. The implied win probabilities are 59.2% for the Orioles and 40.8% for the Red Sox.
Betting Insights:
Baltimore Orioles: In the previous season, the Orioles won 56.3% of games when favored on the moneyline (67-52). Specifically, with odds of -145 or shorter, they held a 55.7% win rate (39-31).
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox were underdogs in 79 games last season, winning 49.4% of those contests (39-40).
Player Highlights:
Boston Red Sox:
Wilyer Abreu: Leading the team with a .700 batting average, two home runs, and six RBIs in the early season.
Jarren Duran: In 2024, Duran accumulated 191 hits with a batting average of .285.
Baltimore Orioles:
Cedric Mullins: Currently batting .313 with two home runs and six RBIs.
Adley Rutschman: Concluded the 2024 season with 19 home runs, 79 RBIs, and a .250 batting average.
Trends:
Over/Under: Eight of the Red Sox's last nine road games have gone under the total runs line.
Recommendation:
Considering the Orioles' offensive potential and the Red Sox's recent scoring struggles, betting on the Orioles to cover the -1.5 run line at +139 odds presents value. Additionally, wagering on the under 9.5 total runs aligns with recent trends and the projected score.
Conclusion:
The upcoming matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox features teams with contrasting early-season performances. The Orioles' offensive strengths and the Red Sox's challenges at the plate suggest a favorable outcome for Baltimore. As always, staying informed with the latest team news and lineup changes is essential for making well-informed wagers.
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