Bucks vs. Pacers Predictions: Odds, Expert Picks, Best Bets for April 22, 2025
The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks are set to clash in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Pacers lead the series 1–0 after a dominant 117–98 victory in Game 1. As the Bucks aim to bounce back, the potential return of Damian Lillard could play a pivotal role in altering the series' trajectory.
Game 1 Recap: Pacers Dominate
In the series opener, the Pacers showcased their offensive prowess and defensive tenacity. Pascal Siakam led the charge with 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting, while Myles Turner contributed 19 points and four blocks. Andrew Nembhard added 17 points, and Tyrese Haliburton orchestrated the offense with 10 points, seven rebounds, and 12 assists. Indiana shot 51% from the field and 38% from beyond the arc, establishing a commanding 67–43 halftime lead and maintaining control throughout the game.
Conversely, the Bucks struggled offensively, shooting just 41% from the field and 24% from three-point range. Giannis Antetokounmpo delivered a stellar performance with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but lacked sufficient support. Key contributors like Taurean Prince and Kyle Kuzma were held scoreless, and the team faced a daunting 28-point deficit early in the game.
Injury Updates: Lillard's Potential Return
A significant development for the Bucks is the potential return of All-Star guard Damian Lillard. Sidelined since March 18 due to a blood clot in his right calf, Lillard has been upgraded to questionable for Game 2 after participating fully in Monday's practice. His return could provide a much-needed boost to Milwaukee's offense, offering another scoring threat alongside Antetokounmpo.
However, the Bucks will be without forward Tyler Smith, who is sidelined with a sprained left ankle.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Spread: Pacers -4.5
Moneyline: Pacers -190, Bucks +155
Over/Under: 228.5 points
Analysts and betting models slightly favor the Pacers to extend their series lead. For instance, Dimers.com predicts a 116–112 victory for Indiana, assigning them a 66% win probability.
Key Matchups and Factors
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Pacers' Defense
Antetokounmpo remains the focal point of Milwaukee's offense. His ability to penetrate the defense and draw fouls will be crucial. The Pacers must strategize to contain his drives and limit his impact in the paint.
2. Pacers' Balanced Scoring
Indiana's strength lies in its balanced offensive attack. With multiple players capable of scoring, the Pacers can exploit defensive mismatches and maintain offensive fluidity. Haliburton's playmaking will be instrumental in orchestrating this balance.
3. Impact of Lillard's Return
If Lillard suits up, his perimeter shooting and playmaking could alleviate the offensive burden on Antetokounmpo. His presence would force the Pacers to adjust their defensive schemes, potentially opening up opportunities for other Bucks players.
Statistical Insights
Pacers' Home Advantage: Indiana has covered the spread in seven of their last eight playoff games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Bucks as Underdogs: Milwaukee has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs, indicating resilience in challenging matchups.
Total Points Trend: The combined scoring average of both teams is approximately 232.9 points per game, suggesting a potential for high-scoring affairs.
Prediction
Game 2 is poised to be more competitive, especially if Lillard returns to the lineup. However, the Pacers' cohesive team play, home-court advantage, and momentum from Game 1 position them favorably.
Final Score Prediction: Pacers 116, Bucks 110
Expect Indiana to leverage their balanced offense and maintain defensive intensity to secure a 2–0 series lead before heading to Milwaukee.
