Colorado Rockies vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks - March 28, 2025
The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the Colorado Rockies on Opening Day, Friday, March 28, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. This venue change comes after Tropicana Field sustained damage from Hurricane Milton, necessitating a temporary relocation for the Rays' home games.
Pitching Matchup:
Tampa Bay Rays: Ryan Pepiot will take the mound for the Rays. In the previous season, Pepiot compiled an 8-8 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 26 starts. His control was notable, boasting a 4.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, though he did allow 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Colorado Rockies: Kyle Freeland is slated to start for the Rockies. Last season, Freeland posted a 5-8 record with a 5.24 ERA across 21 starts. His Opening Day performance was challenging, surrendering a career-high 10 earned runs over 2.1 innings against Arizona. Throughout the season, he allowed 22 home runs and issued 26 walks over 113.1 innings.
Team Outlooks:
Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays concluded the 2024 season with an 80-82 record, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018 and ending a streak of six consecutive winning seasons. Offensively, Yandy Díaz led the team with a .281 batting average and 65 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe contributed 21 home runs. The offseason saw the addition of former Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who recorded 11 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases in 2024.
Colorado Rockies: The Rockies endured a challenging 2024 season, finishing with a 61-101 record and a league-worst 5.47 ERA. The team’s offense struggled on the road, averaging just 3.5 runs per game. Second baseman Thairo Estrada, who was expected to be a key contributor after signing a one-year contract, will miss four to eight weeks due to a wrist fracture sustained during spring training. Kyle Farmer is likely to fill in during Estrada's absence.
Betting Odds:
Moneyline: Rays -199, Rockies +166
Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under: 8 runs (Over -106, Under -114)
Prediction:
Analysts project a 6-3 victory for the Rays, with the total runs exceeding 8. Considering the pitching matchup and the Rockies' offensive struggles on the road, the Rays appear positioned to start their season with a win.
Betting Insights:
The Rays had a 36-32 record as moneyline favorites last season, winning 52.9% of those games.
When favored with odds of -199 or shorter, Tampa Bay had a 1-3 record (25%).
The Rockies were underdogs in 158 games last season, winning 59 (37.3%).
Recommendation:
Given the Rays' home-field advantage, the pitching matchup, and the Rockies' offensive challenges, betting on the Rays to cover the -1.5 run line at +110 odds appears favorable. Additionally, considering the projected total, wagering on the over 8 runs could be a prudent choice.
Conclusion:
The Opening Day matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies presents an intriguing start to the 2025 MLB season. With both teams aiming to improve upon last year's performances, this game offers valuable insights into their potential trajectories. For bettors, the Rays' advantages in pitching and home-field, coupled with the Rockies' recent struggles, suggest a strategic opportunity to back Tampa Bay in this contest.
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