Mavericks vs. Kings Prediction and Odds, April 16, 2025
Team Overviews
Dallas Mavericks (39–43, 10th Seed)
The Mavericks' season has been tumultuous. After trading away Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers, the team faced another significant setback when Kyrie Irving suffered a season-ending ACL injury in early March during a game against the Kings. Irving was averaging 24.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game before the injury. Additionally, Anthony Davis, acquired in the Dončić trade, has been dealing with injuries but is listed as probable for this game. Other key players like Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II have also missed time due to injuries, further impacting the team's performance.
Sacramento Kings (40–42, 9th Seed)
The Kings have had their share of challenges as well. They traded away De’Aaron Fox at the deadline but acquired Zach LaVine in return. Malik Monk, who was averaging 17.2 points and 5.6 assists per game, is out with a left calf strain and will miss the play-in tournament. Despite these setbacks, the Kings have managed to stay competitive, thanks in part to the contributions of LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Domantas Sabonis.
Injury Reports
Dallas Mavericks
Kyrie Irving (G): Out (ACL injury)
Anthony Davis (F/C): Probable
Olivier Maxence-Prosper (F): Out
Brandon Williams (G): Questionable
Sacramento Kings
Malik Monk (G): Out (left calf strain)
Jake LaRavia (F): Out
Betting Odds
Spread: Kings -4.5
Moneyline: Kings -192, Mavericks +160
Over/Under: 215.5 points
The Kings are favored in this matchup, primarily due to the Mavericks' injury woes and the home-court advantage.
Key Matchups
Anthony Davis vs. Domantas Sabonis
Assuming Davis plays, his matchup against Sabonis will be pivotal. Both are versatile big men capable of impacting the game on both ends of the floor.
Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan vs. Mavericks' Perimeter Defense
With Monk out, LaVine and DeRozan will shoulder more of the scoring and playmaking responsibilities. The Mavericks' ability to contain them will be crucial.
Prop Bets to Consider
PJ Washington Over 5.5 Rebounds: Washington has averaged 7.8 rebounds per game this season and has cleared this line in three of his last six games.
DeMar DeRozan Over 5.5 Assists: In 14 games without Monk, DeRozan has averaged 5.6 assists per game, making this a favorable prop bet.
Prediction
Given the Mavericks' depleted roster and the Kings' home-court advantage, Sacramento is poised to win this play-in game. While both teams have faced adversity, the Kings have a more stable lineup and have performed better in recent games. Expect the Kings to cover the spread and advance in the play-in tournament.
